When a team signs a player to a multi-year deal, especially a pitcher, there is always a chance of injury. Kansas City handed right-hander Seth Lugo a three-year deal worth $45 million. Before joining the Royals, Lugo has had a pretty healthy track record between the Mets and the Padres.
Although Lugo has been healthy throughout his career, it's been as a reliever for the most part. Last season Lugo became a full time starter for San Diego. Lugo did however end up on the injured list three times last season due to a calf injury. The Royals decision to sign a 34-year old pitcher to a three-year deal is quite risky, especially one that only has one full year of starting experience under his belt.
The right-hander is known for his great curveball. It just drops. Throwing a baseball as fast as major league pitchers throw it puts wear and tear on the arm, and the curveball is a pitch that could hurt the pitcher's arm especially for a pitcher like Lugo who relies on it heavily but not a guarantee (thank goodness). According to Glenn Fleisig, director of the American Sports Medicine Institute it's not clear if it's bad on the arm or not: 'Science is banging heads with intuition and gut instinct". For years, we told people that curveballs were bad. Then we set out to prove it. We did not prove curveballs are safe, but we could not prove they were dangerous.”
Why do I bring this up? Lugo has one, if not the best, curveballs in the majors. Lugo relies on his curveball heavily. Lugo relying heavily on his curveball with the addition of his age likely could increase the chances of injuries to occur during his time in Kansas City. Aside from his curveball, Lugo doesn't have lights out stuff making him primarily a ground ball pitcher.
Aside from health risk possibilities, can he handle the workload in the rotation over a three-year span? The team's front office seems to believe he can handle the workload as a starter long-term: "We talked last night at dinner about how we were interested last year in signing him,” Picollo said. “But we weren’t sure about the starting role just because he hadn’t done it in the major leagues. Now, when you look back at what he did this past year, that transition was really easy.” Lugo may have a good track record of staying healthy for the most part in his career whether it’s in the bullpen or in the rotation. The Padres signed Lugo to a one-year deal to be a member of their starting five full-time and it worked out for both Lugo and San Diego. Lugo, last season posted a respectable ERA of 3.57 in 26 starts and ate up 146.1 innings.
Lugo had many offers from other teams, but the Royals gave him a deal (aside from the financial side of the deal) that allowed him to be a full-time starter in the big leagues. Lugo himself stated what intrigued him about the deal the Royals offered him: "You look at some of the young guys on this club, they’re future superstars,” Lugo said. “You’ve got Salvador [Perez] back there behind the dish. The experience he’s got -- right before I got to the big leagues, it was Royals-Mets in the World Series. So seeing what the organization has, it seemed like a great fit for us.”
In past articles I have mentioned that MLB Network considers Lugo as a pitcher not a thrower. Lugo doesn't have over-powering stuff (velocity between 91 to 93 mph) on his fastball. However the right-hander has four other pitches that can get hitters out as well including his nasty curveball. The 34-year old as I've mentioned in the past has a pitch repertoire that includes six pitches:
Curveball
Changeup
Sinker
Four Seam fastball
Slider
Sweeper
If healthy, Lugo will be a starter in the rotation that both the Royals and fans can feel good about when he's on the bump to give the team a chance every fifth day. But if he is unable to stay off the injured list, fans will be irritated with the team's front office, and the team itself will have a difficult time placing a 34-year old in the bullpen who’s making $15 million a year. Let's just hope that Lugo is able to stay off the injured list and give the Royals a decent amount of innings and quality starts over the next three seasons.
